# Dating someone with the same birthday internet dating conference nice july 15 16 2016

08-Feb-2020 01:16

Your question got me thinking, and I realized my girlfriend and I also have a strange birthday coincidence. So, first of all, the odds of sharing some weird connection with any random person are probably quite high.

From experience I'd guess around 20% or so, no way to seriously calculate that, but no matter what it exactly is, just want to be clear having a special weird connection means nothing (though it is fun).

We've argued before about the probabilities and I am still not satisfied.

My point was that the chances are tiny if you consider the probabilities of being in a relationship ( being successful at it for X amount of time).

The main consideration is, given this significant person, what is the probability of them sharing your birthday?

On pure chance it'd be roughly 1/365 given that the person in question exists at all.

Just to give an impression of this chance I'd start with the rule of thumb as presented by xkcd which gives a dating age range of $\pm \ age-\frac 7$, where age $=$ age you started dating. However, the chances of dating someone from the exact same year are far greater due to a flaw in the educational system where pooling is done by the date of conception.

A consequence of this is that the pool of people you know from the exact same ages is by guesstimation a factor of 5 bigger than the expected value, if \$age If it's an event specified before the fact, you can simply break it down: The chance that your boyfriend was born the same year as you is actually very high (especially given many situations tend to bring people of very similar age together); it's a very difficult probability to calculate, though, without data.

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We could in some sense describe our sense to which any of these feel surprising or like a major coincidence.Your question is mostly about the probability of two samples being equal.If there were 30 people in your relationship then you'd expect two of them to share a birthday but there aren't 30 people, there are only 2.The larger you cast the search, the more possible bases there are for finding coincidences.

In general, the more you look for them, the more you will see them.

This is analogous to the analyst who performs many post-hoc statistical tests without correcting alpha.